The reason for this is nothing to do with Labor's fumbling leadership or Tony Abbott's great leadership, as the media and/or Coalition would have you believe.
The simple fact is, Tony Abbott doesn't realise there isn't actually an election going on.
It's like we have an election campaign where only one party is campaigning. Of course Labor are going to be behind the Coalition in the polls. Labor aren't campaigning. They're busy doing the job of being in government.
Ever since Labor successfully negociated (sic) with the three independents and the Greens to form government, Tony Abbott has been non-stop campaigning as though an election had already been called.
He has used every moment in opposition not... to seek to amend government policy, not to offer alternative policy, not to show the Australian people that he is ready to form government, but to attack the government with campaign slogans. His budget reply speech wasn't a budget reply speech, it was a campaign speech.
Once the new senate sits, Labor will have no trouble passing policy through the upper house, as any policy passed through the lower house will have to already have the support of the Greens. No doubt this will allow for much stronger Labor policy, providing they can get the independents on their side. At any rate, the government will be much more stable come July and the new senate. Another election is not likely until 2013.
Tony Abbott cannot keep campaigning for two more years. Campaign slogans do not have a long shelf life. Another two years of Abbott doing nothing but campaigning, and failing to provide any actual policy (that isn't scrutinised by his own cabinet before Labor even get a chance to scrutinise it) will most assuredly see him tumble downwards in the polls.
Besides, Labor isn’t even campaigning. Abbott is having a free ride at the moment because he is attacking government policy uncontested. When an election looms closer, Labor will start campaigning again, and Abbott will be left in a boxing ring completely exhausted with an opponent full of energy waiting to knock him out.
But, of course, as soon as Tony drops in the polls, he's outta there. This won’t make much difference. Turnbull would make a brilliant leader for the Liberal party, but he doesn't have the same vile it would take to bring down Labor. He would mount a good, honest campaign about policy rather than outright slander and lies. And of course, in an outright policy battle, Labor are the clear favourites. Detailed polling does in fact tell us that when people have Labor policy explained to them, they by a pularity support it. It is only under the mask of misinformation and outright lies that Labor policy is unpopular. Hockey is little more than a used car salesman. He doesn't have the leadership ability to give the Coalition a strong presence in an election.
People will tire of Tony before too long, Turnbull isn't dirty enough to win, and Hockey isn't charismatic enough to win. In short, the Coalition will not be in government for a long, long time.
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